Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
